Shipping and refiners in catch-22 over 0.5% sulphur rule
The 0.5% fuel sulphur content cap regulation by the IMO is less than three years away from the enforcement date of 1 January 2020, leaving the refining and shipping industries caught in a catch-22 situation.
The problem with the 0.5% sulphur cap regulation is indeed a textbook conundrum for refiners (the fuel suppliers), and shipowners (the fuel buyers), caught in a quandary whereby suppliers are unable to commit on how much to produce as buyers do not know how much is needed, vice versa.
In July this year, the IMO will meet and present a more detailed roadmap, with help from independent research and consultancy organisation CE Delft, on how the fuel sulphur regulation should be appropriately implemented in order to ensure a smooth transition and mitigate disruption to the market.
"The IMO could possibly be looking at a phased introduction of the regulation rather than instant compliance," said Sushant Gupta, director - Asia Pacific, refining and chemicals research, Wood Mackenzie.
Heavy fuel oil (HFO), which is high in sulphur content and considered the bane for environmentalists, is the traditional source of energy to power ships. In 2016, global demand for high-sulphur HFO stood at almost 70% of overall bunker fuels, including the low-sulphur marine gas oil (MGO), or distillates, with below 0.5% sulphur content.
The switch to burning MGO is an option for shipowners to be in compliant with the IMO regulation, and two other alternatives are installing abatement technology such as scrubbers or using LNG as fuel. The use of LNG as fuel, however, is considered a distant option due to the global lack of LNG bunkering infrastructure, not to mention a great deal of uncertainty regarding supplies.
"Installing scrubbers may be an economically attractive option. Although there is an initial investment, shippers can expect a high rate of return of between 20-50% depending on investment cost, MGO-fuel oil spread and ships’ fuel consumption," Gupta said.
"Despite attractive returns, penetration rate for scrubbers could be limited by access to finance, scrubber manufacturing capacity, dry-dock space and technological uncertainties. The shipping industry is traditionally slow to move, but in this case, early adopters may hugely benefit," he said.
Wood Mackenzie forecast that the retrofitting or installation of scrubbers will not pick up substantially until 2020 due to the costly investments ranging from $5-10m per vessel. Analyst McQuilling Services said in a recent industry note that players with difficult access to financing for a scrubber can look to potential cooperation with trading companies as alternatives to banks and investors.
Scrubber manufacturer DuPont Clean Technologies estimated that up to 25% of the world’s fleet would be fitted with abatement technology by 2025, and in the run up to 2020 between 500 to 2,000 additional ships will retrofit with scrubbers.
"Switching to MGO is a more costly solution. In full compliance, we expect shippers to try to pass the cost to consumers and freight rates from the Middle East to Singapore could increase by up to $1 a barrel," Gupta said.
JBC Energy, a boutique oil market research company, also noted that tonne-kilometres and freight rates for dirty tankers are likely to receive a boost with the 0.5% sulphur regulation. The research firm sees potential for crude runs to have additional upside resulting from the specification switch, while the need to optimise the global distribution of HFO should unlock extra demand for dirty freight.
"On top of that, requirements for floating storage of low and high sulphur residue streams are expected to be an additional pillar of support for freight rates over the crucial period from 2019 through 2021," JBC Energy said.
In terms of demand, Wood Mackenzie’s data showed that MGO sales are currently at approximately 700,000-800,000 barrels per day (bpd), and they are forecast to skyrocket to 2.8m bpd by 2020. Demand levels for HFO, on the other hand, are at around 3.2m bpd and are projected to plunge to 700,000 bpd by 2020.
Gupta pointed out that the change in supply landscape would then create a dilemma for scrubber users who would question if there will be enough HFO to burn if refiners significantly restrict the sale of the high-sulphur product as they reap higher margins from selling MGO. Refiners also have their worries that any extra production of MGO would be stranded if the more ships equipped with scrubbers continue to consume the less costly HFO.
"The options for refiners and ship operators will depend on the course of action decided by each of them. At the end of the day, the shipping industry and refineries need to communicate and find middle ground, and time, unfortunately, is running out," Gupta said.
国际海事组织（IMO）规定："自2020年1月1日起的执行0.5％的限硫令"距今不到三年时间了。如今炼油和航运业却陷入了一个左右为难的局面。
就从产量上来说，0.5％的限硫令对炼油厂（燃料供应商）和船东（燃料购买者）来说就存在这样一个难题：炼油厂应该生产多少油？船东应该需要多少油呢？
IMO决定在今年7月成立一个独立研究和咨询机构--CE Delft，主要作用是为共同探讨并制定适当的硫量限制来确保整个过渡期并最小化减少对市场的干扰。为此，CE Delft会召开一些列的会议，并针对具体问题制定详细的应对计划。
Wood Mackenzie位于亚太地区炼油和化学品研究总监Sushant Gupta说："IMO可能正在考虑分阶段实施该规定，而不是立刻执行。"
重质燃料油（HFO），因其硫含量高，被认为是环境污染的祸根，但却是传统的船舶动力的主要来源。目前船舶的动力来源主要有三种，低硫船用轻质燃油（MGO）和分馏油（其硫含量均低于0.5％）、HFO。据统计，2016年，全球对HFO的需求量约占总燃料量的70％。
目前，船东遵守IMO执行0.5％限硫令的方法大致有三种：将燃油替换成MGO、安装减排技术（如使用洗涤器）和使用LNG作为燃料。然而，由于全球LNG燃料基础设施匮乏，供应量不是很大，所以未能广泛使用。
Gupta 认为："安装洗涤器经济吸引力很大，虽然在初期投资较高，但预期回报率可高达20-50％。目前洗涤器的使用仍受到融资、制造能力、干坞空间、技术不确定性等众多条件的限制。但从整个航运市场的发展来看，传统航运业正处于转型发展期，此时投资减排技术，对早期投资者来说收益巨大。"
根据Wood Mackenzie的预测，直到2020年，洗涤器的改造或安装量将不会有显着增长，主要原因是每艘船的投资额高达5-10亿美元。Mc Quilling Services分析师在近期行业报告中建议，难以获得洗涤器融资的企业可以与有意向的贸易公司进行洽谈，而不仅仅局限于银行或单一投资者。
根据洗涤器清洁技术制造商杜邦估计：到2025年，世界上25％的船舶将配备减排技术；在2020年之前，500到2,000艘船舶将改造洗涤器。
Gupta说："使用MGO作为燃油意味着付出高额代价。货主若完全遵守限硫令，不得不将成本转嫁给货主，就单从中东-新加坡航线的运费来看，每桶燃油预计将会增加1美元。"
一家精品石油市场研究公司JBC预计，随着0.5％限硫令的实施，污染油轮的运价将会上涨。JBC指出由于规格的转换，使得经营原油产生额外费用，治理硫污染要从源出发，即减少全球对HFO的需求。除此之外，还需要对2019年至2021年间低硫油使用和高硫油残渣处理给予的大力支持。
在需求方面，根据Wood Mackenzie的数据显示：一方面，MGO目前的销售量目前约为700,000-800,000桶/天（bpd），预计到2020年需求量将达到285万桶/天左右；另一方面，HFO现在的需求量约为320万桶/天，预计到2020年将下降至70万桶/天。
Gupta指出，现在就使用低硫油和洗涤器之间还存在着矛盾。例如，如果炼油厂若从销售MGO中获得高额利润，那么势必减少高硫油产品的产量，那么燃油市场供应格局的变化又会给使用船舶洗涤器的用户带来困扰，甚至会会质疑是否有足够的HFO产品供应。另外，如果大量的船舶都使用洗涤器处理船舶污染，继续使用成本较低的HFO，那么炼油厂生产的MGO的销量又该如何来保障呢？
Gupta说："炼油厂和船东的选择何种方式来应对0.5％的限硫令完全取决于他们个人的行为决策。如果想要有效解决这个问题，需要炼油厂和船东之间进行有效沟通，然而时不我待，炼油厂和船东仍未有任何行动。"
来源：Seatrade
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