Mega ships are the future, but at the price of overcapacity: top MOL man
G6 Alliance members are studying options for buying 18,000-TEU plus box ships, but no decision has yet been made, according to Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL) managing executive officer TK Konishi.
"Perhaps [we will have a] maximum two sets of 18,000 to 19,000-TEU ships by 2020, or by 2022 or 2023. It's a long-term issue," with each member contributing up to four vessels to share equal responsibility.
By comparison the rival P3 Network of Maersk, CMA CGM and MSC is due to operate at least twenty-nine 18,000 to 19,000 TEUers by 2016, provided it gains regulatory approval.
The careful approach is partly due to G6's smaller market share on Asia-Europe routes. Mr Konishi believes the largest ships within the G6 network, at 13,000 to 14,000 TEU, could be just as competitive as P3's bigger vessels, he told Lloyd's List in an interview.
"It's not really the size of ships that matters, but slot costs," Mr Konishi said. "We'll have 48 ships (of 13,000 TEU-14,000 TEU) by 2016, mostly by 2015... only five of them are ordered before the Lehman shock (at high prices)."
G6 deploys on Asia-North Europe and Asia-Mediterranean services 40 vessels larger than 13,000 TEU. "Those ships are very cost competitive."
Said Mr Konishi: "If we order 18,000 to 19,000-TEU ships now, those ships can be much cheaper... then there will be some cost benefits."
MOL is confident that G6 can widen its network to cover transpacific and transatlantic trades from the second quarter as planned.
"We have been operating in accordance with our FMC filings... from that perspective we have antitrust immunity," Mr Konishi said.
"As long as we discuss all sorts of things fully lawful as filed in agreements, I don't really see any reason we have to be in the TSA to operate in the alliance."
On liner alliances upsizing vessels in their networks over the past two years, he said, it is "kind of a vicious circle but one of the simplest, most straightforward ways to lower our slot costs".
With regards to the most viable trade routes of the future given the size of the mammoth breed of vessels, MOL's estimates, a suezmax boxship would be able to carry 200,000 TEU of containers in 24 rows, with a length of 415 metres and 16.3 metre draft. In comparison, a Triple-E class vessel has 23 rows, with a 400 metre length and 16 metre draft.
The Panama Canal's expansion would draw 8,000 TEU-9,000 TEU ships from Asia-Europe to Asia-US east coast trades, squeezing out panamax vessels or smaller.
"Those 8,000 TEU-9,000 TEU ships will have better employment... the surplus of panamax sector is more of a problem for owners, rather than for operators," Mr Konishi said.
Source:Schednet
Source:Schednet
DATE：2014.3.27
MOL常务执行董事：船舶大型化趋势以运力过剩为代价
据英国航运业杂志《劳氏日报》（Lloyd's List）报道，MOL常务执行董事 (managing executive office) T. K. Konishi先生说，G6联盟成员正研究购买18,000个20尺柜以上的大型船舶，但仍未达成任何决定。
Konishi先生说，也许2020年之前，或者2022、2023年之前，G6联盟成员将最多拥有两个系列的大型船舶其运力达到18,000至19,000个20尺柜。相比之下，G6的竞争对手、由马士基、达飞和地中海组成的P3联盟，如果成功获批，其船队中18,000至19,000个20尺柜的船只数目在2016年前将达到29艘。
G6联盟采取谨慎态度的部分原因是由于其在亚欧航线上的市场份额要小一些。G6联盟中最大船只的运力在13,000至14,000个20尺柜之间，而Konishi先生认为这已能够与P3联盟的超大型船舶匹敌Konishi先生指出，船只的运力并不是关键因素，单箱成本才是。他介绍，G6联盟2016年就会有48艘运力达到13,000至14,000个20尺柜的船，大多数在2015年就能交付，其中只有5%的船是在雷曼兄弟公司倒闭之前，即船舶价格较高之时订下的。G6联盟在亚洲至北欧和亚洲至地中海的航线上投入了40艘13,000个20尺柜以上的船舶。Konishi先生表示，这些船具有很高的成本优势。他说，如果G6联盟现在订购18,000至19,000个20尺柜的船，则造价会更便宜，也会带来一系列的成本优势。
MOL对于G6联盟在太平洋和大西洋航线上的扩张计划获批抱有信心，预计该联盟能在第二季按扩张计划展开运营。Konishi先生表示，G6联盟一直遵从美国联邦海事协会（FMC）的规定，从这个角度来说，G6联盟符合反垄断的规定。在评论船公司联盟在过去两年不断投入大型船只的情况时，Konishi先生表示，这是一个恶性循环，却又是一个降低单箱成本的最简单最直接的方法。在发展势头最好的几条航线上，船舶日趋大型化。MOL估计，未来一艘苏伊士型集装箱船（Suezmax）能装载24列总计20,000个20尺柜，长度可达415米，吃水可深及16.3米。目前，3E级集装箱船已经可装载23列集装箱船，长度达400米，吃水深16米。扩大后的巴拿马运河也会把亚洲至欧洲航线上8,000至9,000个20尺柜的船只吸引至亚洲至美国东岸的航线上，从而淘汰巴拿马型或运力更小的船型。Konishi先生表示，8,000至9,000个20尺柜的船将能够得到较好的处置，而多馀的巴拿马型船更像是会令船东烦恼的问题，而不是船公司的问题。
来源：Schednet
日期：2014年3月27日
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